XRP has clawed its way back to around $1.32 following a sharp selloff, yet the recovery remains tentative as buyers have yet to demonstrate full control. The token slid from above $1.42 on September 15 to an intraday low near $1.27, briefly testing $1.25 before stabilizing in the $1.29–$1.32 range.
The two-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to its lowest level in 13 years, a reading that often signals oversold conditions and potential seller exhaustion. However, oversold markets can also produce sharp countertrend rallies before sellers resume pressure, leaving the door open for a bull trap.
Support zone attracts buyers
The rebound has occurred in a price area that traders had already flagged as a potential accumulation zone. In a post on X, analyst Egrag Crypto noted that $1.26–$1.30 represented an initial accumulation area if the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish surprise. "A sharp downside move could create an opportunity, not necessarily a reason to panic," the post said.
XRP fell almost directly into that zone before bouncing, offering bulls evidence that buyers are willing to absorb supply. The move also aligns with the idea that the recent selloff—which included a roughly 10% single-session drop—may have exhausted aggressive sellers.
But one successful support test does not establish a durable bottom. Egrag also identified a deeper $1.15–$1.25 region if selling intensifies, keeping downside risk alive should the current bounce fail to attract follow-through buying.
Resistance remains formidable
The technical damage from this week's breakdown is still significant. Before the selloff, analyst Ali Martinez had identified $1.31–$1.35 as the support area XRP needed to defend and $1.38 as the key breakout level. "A decisive break above that resistance could trigger the bullish breakout and open the door to $1.60," Martinez said, as reported by CCN.
That setup weakened when XRP broke below the support zone. The burden of proof has shifted: a move from $1.25 back towards $1.30 or $1.32 is a rebound, not a reversal. To convince traders, XRP must first reclaim the lost $1.31–$1.35 region and then clear $1.38 with enough momentum to hold above it.
XRP also remains below major long-term moving averages, reinforcing the view that the technical recovery is incomplete. The price action suggests stabilization rather than a confirmed trend change at this stage.
Key level to watch: $1.29
The most important downside level is now $1.29. BeInCrypto reported that XRP's 20-week exponential moving average sits around that price, making the area more significant than an ordinary intraday support line.
Technical analyst ChartNerd warned that "if XRP witnesses daily or weekly closes below $1.29, the next support is back at $1.00." He also highlighted the continuing sequence of lower highs and lower lows, arguing that the intermediate structure still looks more like consolidation than a confirmed reversal.
That makes $1.29 the clean dividing line. If XRP keeps defending it while RSI improves and price begins reclaiming former support, the seller-exhaustion argument gains credibility. However, if XRP closes decisively below it, the rebound could look increasingly like bargain hunters buying too early inside a broader downtrend.
The next move depends less on how oversold XRP looks and more on what price does between $1.29 and $1.38. For broader market context, Wall Street's recent rebound and gold's bounce despite a hawkish Fed show that risk assets are navigating similar crosscurrents.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
