SpaceX (SPCX) shares advanced about 1% on Friday to roughly $149, recovering from an early dip as investors weighed another major artificial intelligence compute agreement disclosed by the company. The latest contract, revealed by CFO Bret Johnsen at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia + Technology Conference, is expected to generate $1.11 billion in monthly revenue starting December 1, translating to approximately $13.3 billion on an annualized basis from a single undisclosed customer.
This agreement marks the fourth major compute deal announced by SpaceX in the past four months, with each carrying an annualized value exceeding $11 billion. In May, the company signed a $1.25 billion-per-month pact with Anthropic, followed by a $920 million-per-month agreement with Google in early June. The rapid accumulation of these contracts is reshaping how investors perceive SpaceX's revenue potential, positioning it not just as a satellite communications provider but as a growing player in AI infrastructure.
William Blair reiterated its Outperform rating on SpaceX following the announcement, noting that the new $13.3 billion annualized deal is separate from the $6.7 billion, six-month compute agreement disclosed during the company's August earnings call. Analyst Louie DiPalma highlighted that SpaceX has increased its conviction in achieving $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by December 2026, a target the company had previously guided toward. Johnsen echoed this sentiment at the conference, expressing even greater confidence in hitting that milestone.
The company is also significantly expanding its planned AI compute capacity. SpaceX now targets between 5 and 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, up from its previous goal of 2 gigawatts by the end of 2026. DiPalma believes SpaceX holds an advantage in deploying capacity faster than competitors, partly due to its relationship with Nvidia, which provides SpaceXAI with priority access to GPUs. This strategic edge could help the company capture a larger share of the growing demand for AI processing power.
Despite the positive AI momentum, SpaceX shares have experienced volatility this week. On Wednesday, the stock fell around 3% following the release of the third scheduled lockup tranche, which made up to 319 million Class A shares tradable—worth roughly $49 billion at recent prices. An additional 59.1 million affiliate shares became eligible on Thursday. The influx of supply initially pressured the stock, but shares recovered modestly on Thursday and are now up 12% over the past 30 days.
Investors remain cautious about potential selling pressure from upcoming lockup expirations. By the end of 2026, approximately 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to have become available for trading, which could lead to intermittent profit-taking by early shareholders. This overhang has made some investors hesitant to buy ahead of further unlocks, even as the company's AI-driven revenue story strengthens.
SpaceX's recent performance reflects a broader trend of AI-related companies attracting investor attention. The company's ability to secure large-scale compute contracts underscores its strategic pivot toward AI infrastructure, a move that could significantly boost its revenue base. With a market capitalization of roughly $2.01 trillion and trailing twelve-month revenue of about $23 billion, the new deals represent a substantial potential uplift.
As SpaceX continues to expand its AI capacity and secure high-value agreements, analysts will be watching closely to see if the company can sustain its growth trajectory and meet its ambitious ARR target. The combination of robust AI demand and strategic partnerships positions SpaceX well, though the overhang of lockup expirations remains a factor to monitor.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
