Solana (SOL) has slipped 3.5% over the past 24 hours, trading near $101 on September 10, as a combination of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields fueled a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets. The token briefly touched $100.60 during the latest decline, putting the psychologically important $100 support level under pressure.
Despite the recent pullback, SOL remains up 1.1% over the past week and 34.5% over the past month, having climbed from the mid-$70s in August to a high near $110. However, the current slide suggests that the strong bullish momentum that drove the token higher has faded, with technical indicators pointing to further downside risk.
Macro headwinds weigh on risk assets
The decline in Solana comes amid a broader risk-off move across global markets. Brent crude oil has returned above $100 per barrel as the US-Iran conflict intensifies and attacks on shipping disrupt energy flows through the Middle East. Higher energy prices have reignited concerns about US inflation, just ahead of key inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve decision.
Asian equities fell alongside crypto as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. The bond market has added to the pressure, with the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing to roughly 4.85%, its highest level since late 2023, after the Treasury announced a $6 billion long-dated bond buyback that was smaller than some investors had expected. Higher Treasury yields increase the returns available on government debt, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Traders are currently pricing in roughly a 60% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase following strong labour market data. This has weighed on crypto prices, with Bitcoin trading near $79,000 and approximately $246 million in crypto positions liquidated over the past 24 hours as volatility increased.
Solana-specific factors limited
Coinbase market data attributes SOL's decline to inflation concerns and weakness across smart contract platform tokens, suggesting that the sell-off is not being driven by a new Solana-specific event. Profit-taking may have intensified the pressure once SOL slipped from the $105 area.
Despite the latest drop, the token has gained 34.5% over the past month after climbing from the mid-$70s in August and briefly reaching roughly $110. This recent strength has been supported by ongoing ETF inflows and rising on-chain activity, as noted in a recent analysis of Solana's potential path to $120.
Technical analysis: key levels to watch
On the daily chart, SOL is trading near $101.19 after reaching an intraday low of $100.50. The price has fallen below the 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at $102.88, which had been supporting the August rally. The daily Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has dropped to -10.02 from above 300 during the August breakout, indicating that the strong positive momentum has been lost, though the CCI has not yet reached the -100 level typically associated with oversold conditions.
Immediate support sits at $100, which has held during the latest decline. A daily close below $100 could bring $95 into focus, with the $90-$92.50 area forming the next support zone from the August breakout. On the upside, a recovery would require SOL to move back above the 9-day SMA at $102.88, with resistance around $105-$107, where several recent attempts to move higher stalled. A break above that zone could put the August high near $110 back in play.
The 4-hour chart shows a similar deterioration. SOL has fallen from around $106-$107 since September 7 and was trading at $101.18, with the latest candle reaching a low of $100.83. On-balance volume (OBV) has declined to -44.94 million, and the MACD line has fallen to -0.46, below the signal line at -0.33, leaving short-term momentum tilted towards sellers.
A break below $100 would expose the recent 4-hour support around $97.50-$98, which was tested during the early-September pullback. If that level fails, the next visible support sits around $95. For the bearish structure to weaken, SOL would need to recover to $102.50-$103 and push the MACD back towards its zero line. A move through $105 would then open the $107 area, with the late-August peak around $110 remaining the next major price level above it.
Investors are also watching broader market dynamics, including the impact of rising oil prices on global equities, as seen in the KOSPI's drop below 7,000. The interplay between energy costs, inflation expectations, and central bank policy will likely continue to influence crypto prices in the near term.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
