Solana's price has stabilized above $120 after US spot Solana exchange-traded funds recorded their largest weekly inflows since launch, providing fresh support as the token approaches key resistance near $125. According to CoinGecko, SOL is trading around $120 as of Sept. 30, up more than 4% over the past seven days, having recovered from a weekly low near $113 and briefly touched $124.5 on Sept. 27 before pulling back.
The recent inflows mark a significant shift in institutional sentiment. Data from SoSoValue shows that US spot Solana ETFs attracted a combined $188 million in net inflows during the five trading sessions through Sept. 25, the highest weekly figure since these products debuted. This institutional demand has been a key driver behind SOL's recovery from the $72–$75 range seen in August.
Adding to the bullish backdrop, Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is now running on both its public devnet and testnet. This upgrade replaces the TowerBFT consensus with the Votor system, aiming to reduce transaction finality from roughly 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. While a mainnet launch date has not been confirmed, and the 150-millisecond target has yet to be demonstrated under live conditions, the progress on testing is seen as a positive step toward enhancing network performance.
Simultaneously, liquidity within the Solana ecosystem has been expanding. Stablecoin supply on the network reached a record $17.3 billion on Sept. 25, approximately $600 million above the previous high set in August, according to DefiLlama. USDC accounts for about $8.4 billion of that total, and the number of Solana wallets holding USDC has grown from roughly 8.1 million in mid-August to over 9.3 million by late September.
These factors combine to create a supportive environment for SOL as it trades near its highest levels since the latest rally began. The key question now is whether the price can break above the $125 resistance level, which has capped gains since late September.
Technical Analysis: Can SOL Break Above $125?
On the daily chart, SOL has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows since mid-August, but it has stalled below $125. The Elder Force Index (EFI) remains positive, currently reading around 4.38 million, above the central level near 3.17 million but below the recent highs above 7 million. This indicates that buying pressure is present but not as strong as during the peak of the rally. A renewed increase in buying force would be needed to support a clean breakout.
The nine-day Rate of Change (ROC) is also positive at 1.75%, showing that SOL is still trading above its level from nine days ago, though momentum has cooled significantly from readings above 20% earlier in September. As long as price holds above $120 and ROC remains above zero, the upward structure remains intact. A turn below zero, combined with a loss of the $116–$118 support zone, would signal a shift in short-term momentum.
On the 4-hour chart, the immediate breakout level is $124.95, which is the upper boundary of the 20-period Donchian Channel. SOL is currently trading near $121.11, with the channel midpoint at $120.64 and the lower boundary at $116.32. A 4-hour close above $124.95 would take price above both the Donchian upper band and the recent September high, opening the door to the next psychological level at $130. The daily chart then suggests room toward the $140–$145 region, where SOL traded before its steep decline earlier in 2026.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) has recovered to 55.38 on the 4-hour chart after dipping into the mid-30s during the latest pullback. Moving back above 50 indicates positive money flow has returned, while the reading remains well below the overbought threshold of 80. This leaves room for MFI to rise further if price makes another attempt at $125, which would provide stronger confirmation of a breakout, especially if the EFI also climbs.
If SOL fails to clear $124.95, it will likely remain within its current Donchian range. The first support to watch is the midpoint at $120.64, followed by the recent buying area around $117–$118 and the lower Donchian boundary at $116.32. A 4-hour close below $116.32 would break the lower edge of the range and weaken the structure that has formed since the Sept. 29 low.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
