Solana has managed to stay above the $100 mark over the past week, with repeated buying interest at that level preventing a sustained breakdown. Despite several attempts to push the price lower, long lower wicks on recent daily candles indicate that buyers are stepping in near this psychological threshold, reinforcing its technical significance.
At the time of writing, SOL is trading around $103, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours. Trading volume has increased by 1.18%, suggesting heightened participation, though volume alone does not clarify whether buyers or sellers will ultimately dominate the next move.
ETF outflows contrast with spot-market support
While spot-market buyers are defending $100, demand through Solana-linked exchange-traded funds remains weak. According to SoSoValue data, these funds have recorded 11 consecutive sessions of net outflows, with over $60 million withdrawn so far in October. This compares with approximately $272 million in inflows during September.
The divergence creates competing signals: buyers are absorbing selling pressure near a key level, while ETF investors continue to reduce exposure. A sustained improvement in fund flows would provide additional support for a broader recovery.
Alpenglow upgrade: potential catalyst
The planned Alpenglow upgrade, set for mainnet activation on October 21 at Epoch 1064, could serve as a potential catalyst. The upgrade has been undergoing testing on Solana's testnet and devnet. Its central objective is to reduce transaction finality from approximately 13 seconds to around 150 milliseconds.
Faster finality would shorten the time needed for transactions to become confirmed as irreversible, rather than simply increasing how quickly they are submitted. This proposed improvement could strengthen interest in the network, though successful deployment does not guarantee a price rally.
Resistance levels to watch
Solana's first recovery obstacle is the selling area around $107–$108, where previous rallies have encountered resistance. A sustained breakout of that zone would bring $114 into focus. This resistance level is an important threshold for invalidating the current bearish price structure.
Clearing $114 would strengthen the recovery case and open a potential path toward $120. Until those barriers are overcome, holding $100 represents stabilization rather than confirmation of a bullish reversal.
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart remains below 40, indicating weak momentum. An upward turn and recovery in the indicator would provide stronger evidence that buying pressure is improving.
However, traders anticipate that a successful Alpenglow rollout could help SOL reach $150 over the following weeks. That is an optimistic scenario dependent on several developments, including continued support at $100, a breakout through resistance, and sustained market demand.
A relatively light economic calendar may give traders more room to focus on network developments and technical levels, but it does not remove broader market risks. For now, the clearest test is whether Solana can turn repeated buying at $100 into a sustained advance above $107–$108 and $114.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
