South Korea's semiconductor exports reached a record $60.3 billion in September, a 262.8% surge from a year earlier, yet Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares fell in Seoul trading on Tuesday. The divergence underscores a growing gap between the memory industry's robust fundamentals and investor sentiment, which remains clouded by foreign outflows and a more selective view of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) opportunities.
By late morning, Samsung was down 1.1%, while SK Hynix had dropped 2.8%. The decline came despite total exports jumping 83.5% year on year to a record $120.9 billion, with semiconductors accounting for half of that figure. The strong data initially lifted both stocks on October 1, but foreign investors continued to sell.
Between September 1 and October 2, foreigners sold a net 20.305 trillion won of KOSPI shares, with SK Hynix and Samsung representing about 85% of that selling. The pressure resumed Tuesday, with foreigners selling a net 737.21 billion won by mid-morning. NH Investment & Securities analyst Na Jung-hwan told Seoul Economic Daily that the structural growth trend for semiconductor companies remains intact, but noted that "breaking through the top of the trading range will require an improvement in the macro environment."
Memory boom is no longer one simple trade
Investors are increasingly distinguishing between industry-wide strength and company-specific positioning in HBM. Bernstein expects conventional DRAM prices to rise by the mid-teens to about 20% in the third quarter, followed by another high-single-digit increase in the fourth, with shortages persisting through 2027. That backdrop supports both companies, but Bernstein analyst Mark Li recently cut his SK Hynix target to 2.7 million won from 3.3 million won, citing more conservative assumptions around HBM progress and pricing.
"We still prefer Samsung among the incumbent suppliers," Li wrote, according to Investing.com. Bernstein anticipates Samsung will gain HBM share, while the transition from HBM3E to HBM4 may take longer than previously assumed. The firm also lowered its 2027 HBM pricing assumptions.
Record exports demonstrate the industry's boom, but they do not determine which supplier earns the highest margins from the next generation of AI memory.
Bull case says investors may be looking too far ahead
The counterargument is that today's shortage may prove more durable than sceptics expect. A Macquarie sales note indicated memory supply could tighten significantly through 2027 and 2028, while long-term supply agreements may make earnings more predictable. Micron reinforced that view last week, reporting that long-term customer commitments had risen to $32 billion from $22 billion in June, with more than 75% of its fiscal 2027 output already committed.
Samsung has an immediate opportunity to test whether those conditions are translating into earnings. Its preliminary third-quarter results are due October 8. Seoul Economic Daily said analysts expect improving memory prices and record exports to support earnings, though won strength could create pressure.
Samsung and SK Hynix are not falling because customers stopped buying memory, as Korea's export data show the opposite. The market is looking further ahead, weighing foreign outflows, elevated bond yields and a complicated HBM landscape against tight supply.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
