Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after four consecutive sessions of losses, as renewed shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz offset optimism that diplomatic efforts could ease Middle East tensions. Brent crude rose about 1.7% to trade near $102 a barrel, while the actively traded November WTI contract hovered around $93.
The bounce followed Monday's slide, when Brent settled at $100.34 and WTI fell to a near two-week low. The market remains caught between geopolitical supply threats and the potential for de-escalation through talks between the US and Iran.
Diplomacy caps the rally, but Hormuz still sets the floor
President Donald Trump has expressed openness to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the UN General Assembly, raising hopes that dialogue could eventually reduce risks to Gulf energy flows. Iran has also outlined conditions for re-engagement, though no meeting has been confirmed.
FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga told The Wall Street Journal that crude is being pulled in opposite directions: Iranian warnings of retaliation keep upside risk alive, while any credible US-Iran dialogue could remove part of the geopolitical premium. Analysts at Gelber & Associates noted that the recent sell-off appeared to reflect improving expectations for diplomacy more than any full normalisation of physical oil flows.
Saudi exports recover, but the logistics problem remains
Saudi Arabia has sharply increased shipments through the Persian Gulf after attacks forced its East-West pipeline and Yanbu export route offline. JPMorgan analysts said satellite data showed Saudi flows through Hormuz averaging about 2.9 million barrels a day, up from roughly 700,000 barrels a day in August. Saudi Aramco also loaded around 14 million barrels onto seven supertankers at Ras Tanura on Sunday.
Those extra barrels have helped push Brent back towards $100, but they come with a cost. Local media reported that tanker expenses from the Gulf to China have risen dramatically as Saudi Arabia relies more heavily on Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers. Physical traffic also remains far below normal: only 17 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz over the weekend, compared with 37 the previous week and a pre-war average of about 125 a day.
Libya adds another complication after armed groups shut a valve serving the Sharara field, cutting around 200,000 barrels a day of production.
WTI technicals show a market trying to stabilise
The active November WTI contract has recovered towards $93 after defending the $91-$92 region. Technical analysts identified roughly $90.96 as first major Fibonacci support, with deeper levels around $87.61 and $84.27. Momentum is less convincing than price: RSI is near 54, while MACD has slipped below its signal line, suggesting the rebound has not yet developed into a fresh breakout.
On the upside, $95.10 is the first significant resistance area. A sustained move through it would improve the near-term structure and bring the recent cycle high around $101.80 back into focus.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
