Joby Aviation's stock has been in a steep decline, shedding more than 70% of its value from its all-time high. Shares recently traded at $6.30, the lowest level since May 2025, bringing the company's market capitalization down from over $17.4 billion to roughly $6.2 billion. The sell-off persists even as the eVTOL developer edges closer to commercial operations.
Inflection point: commercialization and defense expansion
Joby has spent 17 years developing its electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, investing billions in research and testing. The company has leaned on strategic investors like Baillie Gifford and Toyota, which now holds a 14.3% stake. To fund its ambitious plans, Joby has also relied on share dilution, with outstanding shares climbing from 604 million in 2022 to 986 million today.
The company is nearing a pivotal milestone: FAA certification, expected later this year. It has also expanded manufacturing capabilities, leveraging Toyota's production expertise, and secured notable commercial agreements with ANA and Virgin Atlantic. In parallel, Joby is making a strategic push into defense, agreeing to acquire Resonant Sciences for $500 million. Resonant, which generated over $100 million in trailing twelve-month revenue and is growing at 40%, will become Joby's defense arm. This move aligns with the U.S. government's planned defense spending of over $1.5 trillion.
Joby plans to initiate commercial operations this year and scale up thereafter. Analysts project revenue, excluding Resonant, to reach $125 million in 2025 and $299 million in 2026, underscoring the growth trajectory as the company transitions from development to revenue generation.
Persistent concerns weigh on investor sentiment
Despite the promising outlook, investor skepticism remains high. Short interest stands at about 10%, indicating many traders expect further downside. A key worry is the timeline to profitability; even with commercialization, Joby may need to raise additional capital, potentially through further share sales. The company recently announced a $750 million equity offering to finance the Resonant acquisition.
Technical outlook: bears in control
The weekly chart shows Joby's stock in a clear downtrend, falling from a record high of $21 to the current $6.30. The price has broken below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and is trading under both the 50-week and 100-week exponential moving averages. The Average Directional Index (ADX) has risen to 17.30, pointing upward, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum. If the slide continues, the next major support could be $4.87, a level last seen in October 2024 and April 2025.
Investors are also monitoring broader market conditions, as rising oil prices and Treasury yields have pressured equities. For context, the Dow slid 253 points recently as oil topped $102 and the 10-year yield approached 5%. Such macro headwinds could exacerbate volatility in high-growth names like Joby.
Joby's dual focus on commercial air taxis and defense contracts positions it at a critical juncture. Success in either arena could transform its financial profile, but execution risks and capital needs remain substantial. The coming months will be crucial as the company seeks FAA approval and integrates Resonant Sciences.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
