Joby Aviation's stock has extended its sharp decline, erasing most of the gains accumulated between 2023 and August 2025, when it surged from $3.10 to $21. The shares have now fallen to a low of $5.27, and the company's market capitalization has dropped from $15.7 billion to $5.24 billion. As Joby approaches its commercialization phase, investors are questioning whether the sell-off will persist.
Why Joby Aviation stock is falling
The ongoing sell-off in Joby shares has coincided with weakness across the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector. Ehang, the Chinese eVTOL player, fell to $4.20, its lowest level since November 2022 and 85% below its peak last year. Archer Aviation, a key U.S. competitor, dropped to $4.86 from a high of $14.6 last year. Vertical Aerospace, Eve Holding, and BETA Technologies have also continued their downward trajectories.
This decline is occurring even as Joby nears the start of commercial operations, expected later this year or early in 2027. Investors are increasingly focused on whether revenue and profitability will materialize after commercialization. A major concern is dilution: outstanding shares have soared to 986.52 million, up sharply from 604 million in 2022. While the company ended the quarter with over $2 billion in cash, there is a risk it will need to raise additional capital given that profitability will take time.
Joby also suffered a significant legal setback after a jury in Tampa awarded Aerosonic nearly $116.9 million. According to Reuters, the jury determined that Joby owes $68 million for breaching a non-disclosure agreement and $48 million for misappropriating trade secrets related to air data probes. Joby has disagreed with the verdict and plans to appeal.
On the positive side, analysts expect revenue growth to accelerate. The average estimate is for annual revenue of $119.5 million this year, up 123% from a year earlier, followed by $219 million next year, driven by commercialization and its Blade segment. Another potential catalyst is Joby's acquisition of Resonant Sciences, which could strengthen its position in the defense industry.
Technical analysis: death cross nears
The weekly chart shows that Joby Aviation stock has been in a strong sell-off in recent months, moving from a record high of $20.9 last year to the current $5.25. The stock has formed a series of lower lows and lower highs, and it has slumped below all moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued to fall and is nearing the oversold level of 32. It is also approaching a death cross pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.
This technical setup suggests that the stock is not yet in oversold territory, indicating that it may have more downside to go. If the decline continues, the next target to watch is $3.21, its lowest level in December 2022.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
