Ethereum's recent rally has stalled below the $2,800 mark, even as spot ETF inflows continue to provide support. The cryptocurrency is trading around $2,681, up 8.8% over the past week but facing resistance near its September high. Despite $746.5 million in combined ETF inflows over five sessions, selling pressure has kept ETH from breaking higher.
ETF inflows and institutional buying
US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $66.1 million in net inflows on September 24, extending a positive streak. Institutional interest extends beyond ETFs, with Bitmine's Ethereum holdings reaching nearly 5.98 million ETH after acquiring another 27,562 ETH. These purchases have helped ETH maintain most of its recent gains, though the token has been unable to sustain moves above $2,700.
Technical resistance and support levels
Ethereum's daily chart shows a bullish structure, with price above the Ichimoku cloud and the Tenkan-sen above the Kijun-sen. However, the failure to hold above $2,800 has triggered leveraged long liquidations, with $43.1 million in futures positions wiped out on September 24. The token now faces a critical support zone between $2,625 and $2,650, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.
If ETH loses the $2,625 area, the next support levels are $2,610 and $2,582, followed by $2,550 and $2,500. A break below the Kijun-sen could open a move toward the $2,500 region, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $2,394. Conversely, a daily close above $2,800 would target $2,900 and then $3,000.
Market context and yield pressure
Higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield near 5.15%, have coincided with ETH's inability to extend its rally. This macro headwind adds to the technical resistance, keeping price action rangebound between buyers around $2,625 and sellers near $2,700 to $2,800. The outcome of this tug-of-war will determine whether ETH resumes its uptrend or retests lower supports.
On-balance volume has climbed to 35.06 million, suggesting that the pullback from $2,800 has not been accompanied by significant distribution. The Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up at 71.43% and Aroon Down at 28.57%, indicating that while momentum has cooled, the trend is not yet broken.
Investors are watching whether ETH can hold above $2,666, the previous swing high, to maintain proximity to the $2,780–$2,800 resistance. A failure to hold $2,625 would expose the Ichimoku support cluster and potentially trigger a slide toward $2,500.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
