Bitcoin slipped below the $85,000 mark on September 24, shedding roughly 3% in 24 hours as a combination of higher U.S. Treasury yields, resilient economic data, and a wave of long liquidations weighed on the cryptocurrency. Data from CoinGecko showed BTC trading near $84,300 at the time of writing, after falling from an intraday high close to $87,000 the previous day.
The selloff briefly pushed Bitcoin toward $83,500 before buyers stepped in to lift the price back above $84,000. This pullback follows a four-day recovery that had carried the asset from around $75,000 to a September 23 peak near $87,300. However, BTC failed to hold above $87,000 and subsequently lost the $86,000 and $85,000 levels.
Despite the daily decline, Bitcoin remained 10% higher over the past seven days and 4.4% higher over the past month, according to CoinGecko. Over the trailing 12 months, the cryptocurrency was down 24.8%.
Why is Bitcoin price falling today?
The immediate catalyst was a rise in U.S. Treasury yields after S&P Global's flash composite purchasing managers' index climbed to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the highest reading since July 2021. The report also noted that cost growth reached a near four-year high, driven by energy prices and capacity constraints. S&P Global described the combination of strong economic growth and persistent price pressure as a hawkish signal for interest rates.
Expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy had already been building this week, with traders leaning toward another Federal Reserve rate hike in October as policymakers maintained a hawkish stance. The 10-year Treasury yield subsequently climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Earlier in the week, yields had been below 5%, coinciding with Bitcoin's recovery.
Selling accelerated as leveraged positions were forced out of the crypto derivatives market. Liquidation data showed roughly $524 million in positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with longs accounting for close to $454 million. Bitcoin traders accounted for approximately $146 million of the total, including around $134 million in long positions. Forced closures added selling pressure as BTC moved through $86,000 and $85,000.
Oil prices also contributed to the pressure on bonds after Brent crude rebounded more than 4% toward $104 per barrel. Oil had fallen earlier in the week on hopes of U.S.-Iran diplomacy and recovering Saudi exports, with Brent dropping to $100.34 on September 20. A weak U.S. Treasury auction later added to the rise in yields: the Treasury sold $70 billion of five-year notes on September 23 at a yield of 5.033%, compared with 4.393% at the previous auction. The auction cleared 3.1 basis points above the prevailing when-issued yield, and its bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.21 from a six-auction average of 2.33.
Options positioning could keep price swings elevated into September 25, as roughly $14 billion in Deribit Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on Friday. Bitcoin has already moved below the $85,000 strike.
Bitcoin price analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains above its main exponential moving averages despite the rejection from $87,000. BTC was trading near $84,160, about 4.7% above the 20-day EMA at $80,345. The 50-day EMA stands at $76,105, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs are at $73,042 and $73,825. Price holding above all four means the drop from $87,300 has not yet broken the structure created during the September recovery.
The daily RSI has fallen to 64.63 after moving above 80 during the earlier run, but it remains above its moving average at 59.81 and below the 70 overbought threshold. If RSI continues to drop below 60 alongside a break under the 20-day EMA, momentum could weaken further.
The first support zone to watch is $83,500 to $84,000. A daily close below that area could expose the 20-day EMA near $80,345, which sits close to the $80,000 psychological level. Losing $80,000 would bring the 50-day EMA around $76,105 into view.
On the 4-hour chart, the MACD has produced a bearish crossover after the rejection near $87,000, with the MACD line at 820 below the signal line at 1,282. The histogram has fallen to minus 462 as the latest candles moved back toward $84,000. ADX remains elevated at 39.52 but has dropped from a recent reading above 50, indicating that the strength behind the preceding 4-hour trend is easing.
With 4-hour momentum weakening and BTC still below $85,000, the more probable immediate move is a retest of the $83,500 to $84,000 support area before another attempt at the recent high. A break below $83,500 would leave $82,000 as the next visible price area before the daily 20-day EMA near $80,345. A daily close below $80,000 would expose the $76,000 region, where the 50-day EMA currently sits. Such a move would require a much larger pullback and would weaken the daily structure that remains intact while BTC trades above its major EMAs.
On the upside, a recovery above $85,000 would reduce immediate downside pressure and put the $86,000 to $87,300 region back in focus. BTC would need to clear $87,300 to invalidate the latest rejection, with $90,000 becoming the next visible psychological target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
