Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP showed tentative signs of recovery on Monday after a turbulent week marked by persistent US inflation and continued withdrawals from crypto investment funds. Bitcoin traded around $82,647 at the time of this report, extending its rebound from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80,607. Ethereum and XRP also attempted to stabilize near key support levels following bearish weekly closes.
However, the recovery faces a formidable obstacle: the $85,000 resistance zone. Despite the recent bounce, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above this level, and several factors explain why.
Inflation Pressures Keep Rate Concerns Elevated
Last week's inflation data reinforced worries that US price pressures remain stubbornly high. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% annually, exceeding market expectations of 3.6%. Producer inflation also surprised to the upside, reaching 6.3% against forecasts of 5.3%. These readings point to elevated price pressures at both the consumer and producer levels, raising concerns about another interest rate increase later this year.
Higher interest rates typically increase borrowing costs and reduce liquidity, which can pressure risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Although prices are recovering, the rebound does not resolve the macroeconomic uncertainty that contributed to last week's volatility.
ETF Outflows Reflect Weak Demand
Institutional demand through regulated products remains subdued. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs registered $228 million in net outflows last week, marking the second straight negative week, though withdrawals slowed from $681 million the previous week. Ethereum ETFs recorded $319 million in outflows, extending their withdrawal streak to three weeks. XRP funds also turned negative, posting $1.84 million in outflows and ending 13 consecutive weeks of inflows.
These figures indicate that ETF demand remained weak across all three assets. Bitcoin's smaller weekly outflow suggests withdrawals eased, but a return to sustained inflows would provide stronger evidence of renewed buying appetite.
Technical Resistance at $85,000
Bitcoin's daily chart remains broadly constructive as the price holds above its 50-day EMA at $80,607 and its 200-day EMA at $76,034. However, the recovery is approaching a descending resistance trendline near $83,823, only slightly above the current price. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the near-term recovery case and shift attention toward $85,000. That round-number level capped bullish attempts last week and remains an important obstacle.
If buyers sustain a move above $85,000, the next upside reference is the September 21 swing high at $87,395. Momentum indicators remain mixed. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is below its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51, indicating neutral momentum rather than a decisive bullish shift.
If Bitcoin fails to clear trendline resistance, the 50-day EMA at $80,607 provides the first important support reference. Holding that level would preserve the latest rebound structure. A sustained break below it would weaken the recovery and draw attention to lower support. The 200-day EMA at $76,034 remains a deeper level underpinning the medium-term outlook.
For now, Bitcoin is attempting to build on its recovery, but a sustained break above $82,526—and subsequently $85,000—would offer clearer evidence that buyers are regaining control.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
