Bitcoin has extended its recovery, trading near $86,300 after a 12.3% gain over the past seven days. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $87,000 before retreating, with the $86,000 to $87,500 zone emerging as a key battleground where sellers have slowed momentum.
Spot market activity has shifted in favor of buyers, according to Glassnode data. Exchange taker flows have moved from net selling to net buying as trading volumes increased, indicating that spot participants are joining leveraged traders in supporting the rebound. Meanwhile, continued inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs are helping absorb selling pressure near recent highs.
Futures open interest has climbed above its historical upper band, with funding rates elevated and options open interest near $41 billion. High leverage can amplify moves in either direction, so a break above recent highs could force short covering, while a rejection might trigger long liquidations.
Liquidation heatmaps from CoinGlass show a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $84,000 and $84,500, with smaller bands extending from $86,500 to $87,500. Above that, liquidity pools stretch toward $88,000 to $90,000. A decisive move through $87,500 could open the path to those higher targets, while losing $85,000 would bring the lower concentration back into play.
Macro conditions are providing some tailwinds. Brent crude fell 2.1% to $98.23 after reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline, easing inflation fears. Lower oil has helped relieve pressure on Treasury yields, giving risk assets more room to recover. However, the 10-year yield remains near 4.9%, and markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
Renewed tensions around Hormuz that push Brent decisively above $100 could quickly reverse this support, reviving inflation concerns and keeping yields elevated. That scenario would increase the risk of Bitcoin losing $85,000 and sliding toward the $84,000 to $84,500 liquidity zone.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin's daily chart shows price trading near $86,140 after an intraday high of $86,602. The cryptocurrency remains well above its 20-day EMA at $79,470, 50-day EMA at $75,422, 100-day EMA at $72,582, and 200-day EMA at $73,614. All four averages sit below the current price, with the 20-day EMA turning higher, favoring another attempt at recent highs as long as BTC holds above $85,000.
Chaikin Money Flow has recovered to 0.02 from negative territory, indicating returning buying pressure, though the reading is only slightly above zero, suggesting stronger inflows are needed for a sustained breakout.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has moved above the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at $85,608 and is approaching the 1.0 extension at $87,106, having already traded above $87,000. A strong move above $87,100 to $87,500 could first draw BTC toward the liquidation concentrations between $88,000 and $90,000. If buyers clear that area, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $91,433 becomes the next probable upside target.
MACD supports another attempt higher, with the MACD line near 1,918 versus the signal line at 1,677, and the histogram positive at 241. Upward momentum has remained intact despite the pullback from the latest high.
As such, the EMA structure, positive CMF, and bullish 4-hour MACD currently favor Bitcoin holding above $85,000 and making another attempt at $87,500. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the case for $88,000 to $90,000 first, followed by $91,433 if buying pressure persists.
Conversely, the bullish scenario would weaken if BTC falls back below the 0.786 Fibonacci extension at $85,608 and fails to reclaim $85,000. The next Fibonacci levels sit at $84,432 and $83,606, with a heavy liquidation concentration between $84,000 and $84,500. A break below that zone would expose the Fibonacci levels at $82,780 and $81,758, with the measured move beginning near $80,100 and the rising daily 20-day EMA at $79,470 providing the next major dynamic support.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
