Bitcoin fell approximately 3% over the past 24 hours, trading at $82,947, as investors trimmed positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's release of its latest meeting minutes. The pullback follows another failed attempt to break above $87,000, shifting focus to lower support levels despite ongoing inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and accumulation among tracked wallets.
FOMC Minutes Could Shape Rate Expectations
The minutes, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern Time, may influence market expectations for future monetary tightening. The Fed recently raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, and according to CME FedWatch, the probability of an October hike stands at 19.4%, suggesting markets lean toward a pause. However, the minutes could reveal how strongly policymakers favored additional tightening and their assessment of inflation risks.
A more hawkish tone could increase expectations for an earlier rate increase, potentially adding downward pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, a patient stance might ease some uncertainty weighing on risk appetite. The pre-announcement decline indicates caution, though price action alone cannot confirm investor motivations.
ETF Inflows Continue Despite Price Weakness
Bitcoin-linked ETFs attracted $241 million in net inflows last week, followed by approximately $29 million across Monday and Tuesday. September inflows totaled $2.65 billion, a 23% decline from the previous month but still firmly positive. These figures suggest sustained demand through investment products, yet positive ETF flows do not necessarily prevent short-term price declines when selling elsewhere outweighs incoming capital.
Santiment data showed wallets holding between 1 and 100,000 BTC adding roughly 20,000 Bitcoin during September, valued at around $1.6 billion. The broad wallet range includes various holder sizes, so the figures should not be interpreted solely as purchases by the largest whales. Still, the reported balance growth suggests accumulation among tracked holders during the recent advance, providing a supportive signal without confirming their intentions or guaranteeing a rally continuation.
Technical Outlook: $81,000 as Key Support
On the four-hour chart, resistance near $87,000 has repeatedly capped Bitcoin's upside, leaving the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement. The daily timeframe identifies $81,000 as a potential support zone, which also aligns with the four-hour chart's 200-period exponential moving average, increasing its technical significance.
A strong rebound from that zone would support the argument that the pullback is occurring within an ongoing uptrend. Under that scenario, $87,000 would remain a hurdle before a possible move toward $90,000. However, a visit to $81,000 would not automatically establish a buying opportunity; the strength of the reaction, subsequent price structure, and market response to the Fed minutes would determine whether the recovery scenario gains traction.
For now, Bitcoin's outlook hinges on whether sustained demand can absorb the pullback and defend the proposed support zone as monetary-policy expectations evolve.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
