Bitcoin extended its weekly decline on Thursday, trading below $82,400 as the largest single-day ETF outflow in months and persistent macroeconomic headwinds weighed on investor sentiment. The cryptocurrency changed hands around $82,388, down more than 4% for the week, after failing to overcome resistance near $87,000 and closing below $85,000 the previous day.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remained above its major daily moving averages, preserving a constructive longer-term structure even as short-term momentum softened. The Relative Strength Index has dropped to 49, indicating growing bearish momentum, while a negative MACD histogram showed that bullish momentum had weakened.
ETF Outflows Hit June Highs
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $487.07 million in net outflows on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue. This marked the largest single-session withdrawal since June 25, highlighting a deterioration in demand through these investment products. Further outflows could make Bitcoin's recovery more difficult by removing a key source of buying support.
However, one large negative session does not establish that withdrawals will continue at the same pace. The next trading sessions will help determine whether Wednesday's redemptions mark a sustained shift or a temporary reduction in exposure.
Government Wallet Transfers and Dormant Holder Activity
The bearish performance came after Lookonchain reported Thursday that US government-linked wallets transferred approximately $566 million in assets over ten hours. The transfers included 4,632 BTC, 119 million USDT, and 750 wrapped Bitcoin, with most of the funds reportedly moving to Coinbase Prime. Such movements can raise concerns about potential sales, but a transfer to an institutional platform does not establish that assets have been sold; it may also reflect custody or other operational activity.
Separately, a long-dormant holder transferred 4,500 BTC after more than four years of inactivity. An eventual move to an exchange could increase speculation about selling intentions, though the reported transfer alone does not confirm liquidation of the holdings.
Macro Pressures: Dollar and Yields
The US Dollar Index held around 102.36 on Thursday after reaching 102.53 on Monday, its highest level since early April 2025. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield remained above 5.30% after reaching a two-decade high earlier in the week. Higher yields increase the appeal of interest-bearing assets and can reduce demand for riskier investments.
Minutes from the September 15–16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed unanimous support for raising the federal funds rate target range. Most officials also expected another increase would likely be appropriate before year-end to address persistent inflation, reinforcing the pressure from elevated yields and a firm dollar.
Technical Outlook: $85,000 Becomes Resistance
Bitcoin's close below $85,000 turned a previously important support level into an immediate recovery hurdle. A clear daily close back above it would improve the near-term setup and bring the recent $87,000 highs into focus. On the downside, the 50-day exponential moving average near $79,704 provides the next significant support reference. Below that, the 100-day EMA at $75,857 and the 200-day EMA at $75,242 form a further support band, with more distant horizontal levels at $66,500 and $62,300.
For now, reclaiming $85,000 would strengthen the recovery case, while continued ETF withdrawals and macroeconomic pressure could bring lower support into play.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
